Lots of research shows that a high school grade point average is among the single best predictors of student college success.
Crossing the Finish Line found that high school GPA played a very large role in determining whether or not a student would graduate and this was true regardless of the high school’s rigor—”with modest qualifications, ‘a grade is a grade is a grade,’” the authors wrote on page 122. This also meshes with findings of both the
College Board and
ACT, which state that high school GPA is among the single best predictors of first-year student grades. (Both of course recommend combining grades and their test for the best match.)
The importance of grades makes logical sense. Unlike a test that can be completed in a few hours, grades do indicate some level of sustained effort or achievement. Even if there is inflation, doing well across several years in a variety of subjects still does show a certain amount of mastery.
That’s why I was really intrigued by a statistic that Daniel Luzer at the
Washington Monthly’s College Guidepicked up in
this post on remediation: “nearly four out of five remedial students had a high school GPA of 3.0
