The art of reading political polling: Headlines aside, latest poll is VERY bad news for Malloy - Wait, What?

The art of reading political polling: Headlines aside, latest poll is VERY bad news for Malloy - Wait, What?:

The art of reading political polling: Headlines aside, latest poll is VERY bad news for Malloy

by jonpelto

A quick sweep of this morning’s news headline reveals the following:

CT Mirror  headline: First 2014 poll shows Malloy trailing Foley by 3 points

CT Newsjunkie headline: Poll: Foley Beats Malloy By 3 Points

Hartford Courant headline:  Latest Poll: GOP’s Tom Foley Leads Gov. Malloy, 43 Percent To 40 Percent

All three statements are “true” but none of them accurately report the key information contained in this public opinion survey.

At this point in the 2014 gubernatorial election one number rises above all others.  It is called the “re-elect” percent. It tells candidates, campaign managers and political