my totally useless sense of what will happen in the election
Let's start with the presidential. I am not yet ready to lock down percentages or electoral votes, but I have not swayed from this - Obama will win by at least 4% in the popular vote and at least 303 electoral votes.
On EV calculation - the states he won last time now have 359 EV, from which I subtract IN and 2nd CD of NE for a starting baseline of 347.
He will at worst lose FL and NC, which is how I get to 303.
I will return below the fold to my reasoning on this and the other items.
The Dems hold the Senate. Of the seats they currently hold they will lose NE unless Obama gets up to +9 in the popular vote which is unlikely. They may lose MT. They will hold all other current seats giving them 51.
Paul Krugman: Death by Ideology
On EV calculation - the states he won last time now have 359 EV, from which I subtract IN and 2nd CD of NE for a starting baseline of 347.
He will at worst lose FL and NC, which is how I get to 303.
I will return below the fold to my reasoning on this and the other items.
The Dems hold the Senate. Of the seats they currently hold they will lose NE unless Obama gets up to +9 in the popular vote which is unlikely. They may lose MT. They will hold all other current seats giving them 51.
Paul Krugman: Death by Ideology
begins like this:
Obama running an effective ad on Medicaid
Mitt Romney doesn’t see dead people. But that’s only because he doesn’t want to see them; if he did, he’d have to acknowledge the ugly reality of what will happen if he and Paul Ryan get their way on health care.Krugman's Monday column uses Romney's words against him, quoting first the statement to the Columbus Dispatch that no one dies because of being uninsured and then referring to Romney's previous statement about people being able to get their essential health care in hospital emergency rooms. He then says bluntly
These are remarkable statements. They clearly demonstrate that Mr. Romney has no idea what life (and death) are like for those less fortunate than himself.There is so much more in this column . . .
Obama running an effective ad on Medicaid
that's right, Medicaid, not Medicare
framed in terms of how it used by middle class families for nursing care home
hitting Romney on his record in MA and his plans were he to become President
it ran at least twice during the Redskins game here in DC
and remember these percentages of older voters according to the 2010 census:
1. Florida - 17.3%
2. West Virginia - 16.0%
3. Maine - 15.9%
4. Pennsylvania - 15.4%
5. Iowa - 14.9%
6. Montana - 14.8%
7. Vermont - 14.6%
8. North Dakota - 14.5%
Of these, while Obama will not win ND, running this ad could help Heidi in her Senate race and similarly in MT with Tester. Obama will NOT win WV. But this could lock down FL and IA, and would probably also help in OH as well.
Here's the ad:
Popout
One more thought - it is not just seniors to whom this ad will play. It is to those with elderly parents who worry about them, and it is to those who are approaching their senior years without a defined benefit pension who wonder how they will survive.
Phila Inquirer endorsement - Obama will do a better job
framed in terms of how it used by middle class families for nursing care home
hitting Romney on his record in MA and his plans were he to become President
it ran at least twice during the Redskins game here in DC
and remember these percentages of older voters according to the 2010 census:
1. Florida - 17.3%
2. West Virginia - 16.0%
3. Maine - 15.9%
4. Pennsylvania - 15.4%
5. Iowa - 14.9%
6. Montana - 14.8%
7. Vermont - 14.6%
8. North Dakota - 14.5%
Of these, while Obama will not win ND, running this ad could help Heidi in her Senate race and similarly in MT with Tester. Obama will NOT win WV. But this could lock down FL and IA, and would probably also help in OH as well.
Here's the ad:
Popout
One more thought - it is not just seniors to whom this ad will play. It is to those with elderly parents who worry about them, and it is to those who are approaching their senior years without a defined benefit pension who wonder how they will survive.
Phila Inquirer endorsement - Obama will do a better job
in this editorial from yesterday the paper of record for the Philadelphia area, including South Jersey and Delaware, lays out its rationale for again supporting Obama for the presidency over a Republican opponent.
Several snips from the editorial, which I urge you to read, are worth noting.
Here's the beginning:
Peatsy
Several snips from the editorial, which I urge you to read, are worth noting.
Here's the beginning:
Like a carnival barker cajoling a mark into spending the last bills in his wallet, the Republican Party is counting on Americans' not remembering that they've seen this trick before.GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney wants voters to forget their familiarity with the prize he's
Peatsy
Rita Hollings, commonly known as Peatsy, passed last night. She had suffered from Alzheimer's for a number of years. She was of course the (2nd) wife of former Senator Ernest "Fritz" Hollings of SC.
She was a character, as this story from The State back in 2004 reminded people:
She was a character, as this story from The State back in 2004 reminded people:
Those who appreciate U.S. Sen. Fritz Hollings' quick wit ought to meet his wife.
There was that time in 1984, for example, when the senator was running for president and Peatsy Hollings, campaigning with him in New Hampshire, was awakened in the wee hours for the umpteenth time by an overly eager aide.She picked up the phone.
"May I speak with Senator Hollings?" the aide asked.
Mrs. Hollings paused a second, looked at her husband, and decided to have a little fun.
