Teacherpocalypse 2010 Is Upon Us!
Teacher firings are such a good story. Even seasoned reporters can't resist the lure of quotes from panicked public officials lamenting their absolute necessity of sacking their states' beloved kindergarten teachers. For instance, yesterday's New York Times story (which ran in today's print edition) on the coming teacherpocalypse offered this catastrophic-sounding line:
The 2010-11 school term is shaping up as one of the most austere in the last half century. In addition to teacher layoffs, districts are planning to close schools, cut programs, enlarge classes and shorten the school day, week or year to save money.
A quick read might leave the impression that state education budgets have been reduced to levels rarely seen in the post-war era. Are things really that bad, Secretary of Education Arne Duncan?
Duncan estimated that state budget cuts imperiled 100,000 to 300,000 public school jobs. In an interview on Monday, he said the nation was flirting with “education catastrophe,” and urged Congress to approve additional stimulus funds to save school jobs.
“We absolutely see this as an emergency,” Mr. Duncan said.
It is a budget emergency now, but not strictly because of schools have been "hit hard by the recession" as the Times suggests. It's mostly because states spent an ungodly amount of money during the '00s. It's money they don't have anymore, and you can't blame them for missing it. But catastrophe is relative here.
In the five years between 2002 and 2007, states spent just over $300 billion more than necessary to maintain operations at 2002 levels, accounting for inflation and population growth. Keeping the (not exactly slimline) engines of state governments running would have increased the 2002 spending figure—then just over $1 trillion—by 19 percent. But states actually spend half again as
