THE AMERICAN POLITICAL PENDULUM: WHY IS IT STUCK ON RIGHT
Have you ever wondered why American politics seems to swing back and forth between liberalism and conservatism like a pendulum? Well, I've got a theory for you, and it involves a lot of tea parties, Reaganism, McCarthyism, and even a Cold War. But before we dive into the nitty-gritty of the pendulum theory, let's take a moment to appreciate the fact that we live in a country where politics is so predictable that we can compare it to a pendulum. I mean, it's not like we're living in a banana republic or anything. Oh wait...
Anyway, the pendulum theory in American politics suggests that the political mood and direction of the United States tends to swing back and forth between liberalism and conservatism over time. This theory is based on the observation that different periods in American history have been dominated by different parties, ideologies, and policies, and that these periods often alternate or contrast with each other. It's like one minute we're all about free love and flower power, and the next minute we're all about trickle-down economics and bombing brown people.
So why does this pendulum keep swinging to the right? Well, there are a few factors at play here. For one thing, conservatives are really good at marketing themselves. They've got catchy slogans like "Make America Great Again" and "Freedom Isn't Free," while liberals are stuck with lame slogans like "Stronger Together" and "Yes We Can." I mean, come on, guys, put some effort into it!
Another factor is that conservatives tend to be more organized than liberals. They've got think tanks, media outlets, and grassroots organizations that are all dedicated to promoting their agenda. Meanwhile, liberals are too busy arguing about intersectionality and trigger warnings to get anything done.
But perhaps the biggest factor is that conservatives are really good at exploiting people's fears. They've convinced a lot of Americans that they're under attack from immigrants, Muslims, feminists, environmentalists, socialists, and pretty much anyone who's not a white Christian male. And when people are scared, they tend to vote for whoever promises to protect them from the scary monsters.
So what does this mean for the future of American politics? Well, if the pendulum theory holds true, we can expect to see a swing back towards liberalism at some point in the future. Maybe it'll be sparked by a charismatic leader who inspires us to dream big again. Maybe it'll be sparked by a crisis that forces us to come together as a nation. Or maybe it'll be sparked by something totally unexpected, like aliens invading Earth and forcing us to unite against a common enemy.
In the meantime, though, we're stuck with this right-wing swing of the pendulum. So let's buckle up and enjoy the ride. Who knows, maybe we'll get lucky and the next conservative president will be someone cool like The Rock or Oprah. Or maybe we'll get stuck with another Trump. Either way, at least we can take comfort in the fact that we're not living in a banana republic... yet.
THE DEFT DIVE
Different historians may have different criteria and interpretations of what constitutes a conservative period in American history. However, based on some sources, here are some possible answers:
- - According to the Wikipedia article on the **History of conservatism in the United States**¹, one could identify four major conservative periods in American history: the **Colonial era** (before 1776), when conservatism was based on a landed elite and a loyalist merchant class; the **Gilded Age** (1870s-1900), when conservatism was based on laissez-faire capitalism and opposition to labor unions and social reforms; the **Roaring Twenties** (1920s), when conservatism was based on cultural traditionalism and isolationism; and the **Reagan era** (1980s), when conservatism was based on a fusion of economic liberalism, social conservatism, and anti-communism. These periods lasted for varying lengths of time, depending on how one defines their beginnings and endings, but they generally ended due to major crises or changes in the political landscape, such as the American Revolution, the Great Depression, the New Deal, World War II, the Civil Rights Movement, and the end of the Cold War.
- - According to the Wikipedia article on **Conservatism in the United States**², one could identify three major conservative movements in American history: the **Old Right** (1920s-1950s), which opposed the New Deal and favored non-interventionism; the **New Right** (1960s-1990s), which opposed the Great Society and favored a strong national defense; and the **Tea Party movement** (2000s-present), which opposes big government and favors fiscal conservatism. These movements lasted for varying lengths of time, depending on how one defines their peaks and declines, but they generally changed due to internal divisions, ideological shifts, or electoral defeats.
- - According to the Wikipedia article on the **Timeline of modern American conservatism**³, one could identify several key events and milestones that marked conservative periods in American history, such as: the founding of the National Review magazine in 1955; the election of Dwight D. Eisenhower as president in 1952 and 1956; the publication of Barry Goldwater's The Conscience of a Conservative in 1960; the election of Richard Nixon as president in 1968 and 1972; the rise of the religious right in the 1970s; the election of Ronald Reagan as president in 1980 and 1984; the fall of communism in 1989-1991; the Republican Revolution of 1994; the election of George W. Bush as president in 2000 and 2004; and the emergence of the Tea Party movement in 2009. These events and milestones lasted for varying lengths of time, depending on how one measures their impact and significance, but they generally reflected or influenced conservative trends in American politics, culture, and society.
- - According to an article by Jennifer Burns on **Conservatism: A State of the Field**⁴, one could identify several themes and topics that have shaped conservative periods in American history, such as: anti-statism, constitutionalism, individualism, capitalism, religion, morality, nationalism, patriotism, exceptionalism, tradition, order, hierarchy, authority, natural law, natural rights, human nature, realism, pragmatism, skepticism, anti-utopianism, anti-radicalism, anti-communism, anti-liberalism. These themes and topics lasted for varying lengths of time, depending on how one traces their origins and developments, but they generally expressed or challenged conservative ideas and values in American thought and discourse.
The pendulum theory in American politics is a model that suggests that the political mood and direction of the United States tends to swing back and forth between liberalism and conservatism over time. This theory is based on the observation that different periods in American history have been dominated by different parties, ideologies, and policies, and that these periods often alternate or contrast with each other. The pendulum theory can be applied to different aspects of American politics, such as party control of Congress, presidential elections, foreign policy, social movements, and public opinion.
One version of the pendulum theory was proposed by historians Arthur M. Schlesinger Sr. and Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., who identified several liberal and conservative periods in American history from the colonial era to the late 20th century. They argued that each phase has characteristic features, such as the emphasis on the rights of the many or the few, the expansion or containment of democracy, the promotion of public or private interests, and the protection of human or property rights. They also argued that each phase is self-limiting, generating the opposite phase, due to factors such as exhaustion, accumulation of problems, or generational change. ¹²
Another version of the pendulum theory was proposed by historian Frank J. Klingberg, who focused on the cyclical patterns of American foreign policy. He argued that the United States has repeatedly alternated between foreign-policy extroversion and introversion, meaning willingness or unwillingness to go on international adventures. He identified several cycles of extroversion and introversion from the colonial era to the late 20th century, and attributed them to factors such as national mood, economic conditions, security threats, and moral values. ³
The pendulum theory is not a definitive or deterministic explanation of American politics, but rather a descriptive and interpretive framework that can help us understand some of the trends and changes that have occurred over time. However, the theory also has some limitations and criticisms, such as oversimplifying the complexity and diversity of American politics, ignoring the role of agency and contingency in shaping political outcomes, and failing to account for new developments or challenges that may disrupt or modify the cyclical patterns.
As for which periods were considered progressive or conservative in American history, this depends on how one defines these terms and which criteria one uses to classify them. However, based on some common sources and perspectives, here are some possible answers:
- - According to a website created by datascience@berkeley called **The Political Pendulum**⁴, which shows the party control and strength in Congress from 1968 to 2018, one could identify several progressive or conservative periods based on which party had more seats in both chambers. For example, one could say that 1968-1974 was a progressive period (Democratic majority), 1974-1992 was a mixed period (Democratic House vs Republican Senate), 1992-1994 was a progressive period (Democratic majority), 1994-2006 was a conservative period (Republican majority), 2006-2010 was a progressive period (Democratic majority), 2010-2018 was a mixed period (Republican House vs Democratic Senate), and 2018-present is a progressive period (Democratic majority).
- - According to an article by Jennifer Burns on **Conservatism: A State of the Field**, which reviews some of the recent scholarship on conservatism in American history, one could identify several progressive or conservative periods based on which ideas and movements were dominant or influential in American politics and culture. For example, one could say that 1890-1920 was a progressive period (Progressive Era reforms), 1920-1932 was a conservative period (Republican presidents and policies), 1932-1945 was a progressive period (New Deal liberalism), 1945-1960 was a conservative period (Cold War conservatism), 1960-1980 was a progressive period (Civil Rights Movement and Great Society liberalism), 1980-2008 was a conservative period (Reagan Revolution and New Right conservatism), and 2008-present is a mixed or uncertain period (Obama presidency vs Tea Party movement).
Bing, 7/1/2023
History of conservatism in the United States - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_conservatism_in_the_United_States.
Conservatism in the United States - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservatism_in_the_United_States.
Timeline of modern American conservatism - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_modern_American_conservatism.
Conservatism: A State of the Field | Journal of American History .... https://academic.oup.com/jah/article/98/3/723/684892.
The Political Pendulum - UCB-UMT. https://ischoolonline.berkeley.edu/political-pendulum/.
Cyclical theory (United States history) - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclical_theory_%28United_States_history%29.
The Pendulum Theory of Art & Politics - LinkedIn. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/pendulum-theory-art-politics-teresa-funke.
(4) The Pendulum of American Politics | National Review. https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/the-pendulum-of-american-politics/.
