Overconfident Experts as Poor Predictors
Experts are poor predictors of the future.
*”In one study, college counselors were given information about a group of high-school students and asked to predict their freshman grades in college. The counselors had access to test scores, grades, the results of personality and vocational tests, and personal statements from the students, whom they were also permitted to interview. Predictions that were produced by a formula using just test scores and grades were more accurate.”
*In another study, “data from a test used to diagnose brain damage were given to a group of clinical psychologists and their secretaries. The psychologists’ diagnoses were no better than the secretaries.’ “
*In the 1990s, a psychologist interviewed 284 experts who “made their living ‘commenting or offering advice on political and economic trends.’” He asked these experts to predict whether particular events would occur soon in parts of the globe in which they knew well and in areas about which they were familiar but were less
