BEEN THERE, DONE THAT: AMERICA’S LATIN AMERICAN INTERVENTIONS
AND THE LOOMING SHADOW OF A VENEZUELAN CHILI REDUX
Picture this: it’s 1973, and the U.S. is playing chess with Chile’s democracy, moving pieces labeled “CIA,” “economic blockade,” and “coup” to topple Salvador Allende’s socialist government. Fast forward to 2025, and the board looks eerily familiar, only now the pieces are circling Venezuela, with Nicolás Maduro cast as the beleaguered king. The U.S. has rolled out the USS Gerald R. Ford, slapped sanctions on everyone from Maduro to Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, and allegedly sent mercenaries sniffing around Caracas. Is this Chile 2.0, or just another spicy chapter in America’s long, tangled love affair with Latin American regime change? Grab a piña colada, because this geopolitical cocktail is about to get shaken, not stirred.
A History of Meddling: The U.S. and Latin America’s Dance of Destiny
The U.S. has been tangoing with Latin America since the 19th century, when the Monroe Doctrine declared the Western Hemisphere America’s backyard—no Europeans allowed, but Uncle Sam could rearrange the furniture. From the Mexican-American War (1846–1848), where the U.S. snagged half of Mexico’s territory, to the “Banana Wars” (1898–1934), where Marines played whack-a-mole with Caribbean governments to protect fruit tycoons like United Fruit Company, the playbook was clear: economic interests, strategic dominance, and a dash of ideological zeal. The Cold War turned up the heat, with the U.S. backing coups in Guatemala (1954), Brazil (1964), and, of course, Chile (1973) to keep communism at bay. Methods ranged from outright invasions to covert ops, with the CIA funding everything from radio propaganda to paramilitary death squads.
Chile’s 1973 coup is the gold standard of U.S. meddling. Declassified documents reveal a masterclass in destabilization: the Nixon administration, spooked by Allende’s socialist reforms, cut off aid, pressured international banks to starve Chile’s economy, and funneled cash to opposition groups. The CIA’s “Track II” operation even tried to kidnap a Chilean general, resulting in his death and a PR disaster. By September 11, 1973, jets were bombing the presidential palace, Allende was dead (suicide or murder, depending on who you ask), and Augusto Pinochet’s brutal dictatorship took over, with U.S. support continuing despite his penchant for “disappearing” dissidents. The lesson? When the U.S. wants a government gone, it’s less about diplomacy and more about making the economy “scream.”
Venezuela 2025: Déjà Vu or a New Recipe?
Now, let’s zoom to Venezuela, where the aroma of a Chile redux is wafting through the Caribbean. The country is a mess: a disputed 2024 election saw Maduro claim victory, but the U.S. and others cried foul, recognizing opposition candidate Edmundo González as the “rightful president.” Venezuela’s economy is a rollercoaster—oil exports are up, but most citizens can’t afford a basic food basket on $250 a month. Over 7.8 million Venezuelans have fled, creating a displacement crisis rivaling Syria’s. Meanwhile, Maduro’s regime jails dissenters (827 political prisoners and counting), while opposition leader María Corina Machado, now a Nobel Peace Prize winner, hides from arrest warrants.
Enter the U.S., stage right, with a military buildup that screams “gunboat diplomacy.” The USS Gerald R. Ford is prowling the Caribbean, joined by destroyers and submarines, ostensibly to combat drug trafficking. But Maduro’s not buying it, accusing the U.S. of “fabricating a war” to oust him. Venezuela’s claims of capturing CIA-linked mercenaries and its accusations against Trinidad and Tobago for hosting U.S. military drills add fuel to the fire. The U.S. has also slapped sanctions on Colombia’s Petro, accusing him of coddling narco-criminals, while conducting lethal strikes on alleged drug boats—actions some experts call extrajudicial. Venezuela’s response? Coastal defense exercises and boasts about Russian-made missile defenses, plus a shiny new strategic treaty with Moscow.
Sound familiar? It’s like the U.S. dusted off its Chile playbook and swapped “anti-communism” for “anti-narcotics.” Sanctions? Check. Military posturing? Check. Support for the opposition? Check—González and Machado are the new darlings of U.S. diplomacy. Covert ops? Well, those alleged mercenaries aren’t exactly handing out résumés. The parallels are uncanny, but there’s a twist: unlike Allende’s Chile, Maduro’s Venezuela is a tougher nut to crack. He’s clung to power through economic chaos, defections, and failed coups (remember Juan Guaidó’s 2019 flop?). Plus, he’s got Russia and China in his corner, not to mention a military that’s still loyal—for now.
The Spice of Motives: Why Venezuela?
Why is the U.S. so keen on Venezuela? It’s not just about Maduro’s mustache-twirling villainy. Oil is the big prize—Venezuela sits on the world’s largest reserves, and despite sanctions, it’s pumping more crude than ever. The U.S. wants a friendly regime to secure those barrels, especially as global energy markets wobble. Geopolitics is another factor: Venezuela’s coziness with Russia and China irks Washington, which sees the Western Hemisphere as its sphere of influence (Monroe Doctrine, anyone?). Then there’s the “narco-state” narrative, which gives the U.S. a convenient excuse to flex its military muscle while dodging accusations of imperialism. Sound like Chile? Allende’s socialism threatened U.S. copper interests and Cold War dominance; Maduro’s regime threatens oil and regional stability.
But here’s where the chili gets spicier: the U.S. isn’t just playing to its own tune anymore. The international community is watching, and not everyone’s cheering. Critics argue U.S. actions—those boat strikes, for instance—skirt international law. Sanctions have crippled Venezuela’s economy, exacerbating a humanitarian crisis where 7.6 million need aid, yet relief efforts are underfunded. The U.S.’s decision to end Temporary Protected Status for Venezuelans in October 2025 only adds to the chaos, potentially deporting thousands back to a collapsing state. Meanwhile, regional players like Colombia, under the sanctioned Petro, are caught in the crossfire, balancing their own interests with U.S. pressure.
Will We Read About a Venezuela Coup in 2035?
So, will declassified documents in a decade reveal a U.S.-orchestrated coup in Venezuela, à la Chile? It’s not a stretch. The ingredients are there: covert ops (those mercenaries), economic strangulation (sanctions), and military saber-rattling (hello, aircraft carrier). But there are reasons to doubt a full-on replay. For one, a land invasion is unlikely—too messy, too Iraq-esque. The U.S. prefers subtler tools: sanctions, proxies, and maybe a dash of cyber-warfare. Maduro’s resilience is another hurdle; he’s weathered worse storms than Allende ever did. And global optics matter more now—overt intervention could alienate allies and embolden rivals like China.
Still, the U.S. has a track record of playing the long game. Declassified files from Chile took decades to surface, revealing the full extent of CIA mischief. If a coup does happen in Venezuela, we might not know the juicy details until 2035, when some future whistleblower leaks the memos. For now, the U.S. insists it’s just fighting drugs, not plotting regime change. But as Mark Twain might’ve said, history doesn’t repeat itself—it just rhymes, and this rhyme is starting to sound like a Chilean protest song.
A Dash of Hope or a Pinch of Chaos?
What’s the endgame? The U.S. wants Maduro gone, but replacing him won’t be easy. The opposition, led by Machado and González, has international clout but faces a regime that’s dug in like a tick. Venezuela’s military and paramilitary groups could resist a transition, turning any coup into a bloody quagmire. And let’s not forget the human cost: millions are already starving, displaced, or jailed. U.S. sanctions, while aimed at Maduro, have hit ordinary Venezuelans hardest, much like the “invisible blockade” that crushed Chile’s economy pre-1973.
The irony? Both sides are posturing as saviors. Maduro rallies his base with anti-imperialist rhetoric, while the U.S. cloaks its moves in “democracy promotion.” Meanwhile, Venezuelans are caught in the middle, dodging bullets—literal and economic. If this is Chile redux, it’s a slow-burn version, with more drones and fewer tanks. But the stakes are just as high: a nation’s future, a region’s stability, and the ghosts of interventions past.
So, will Venezuela be a chili redux? Maybe. The U.S. has the recipe down pat—mix sanctions, military shows, and opposition funding, then simmer until something breaks. But Maduro’s not Allende, and 2025 isn’t 1973. The world’s watching, and the pot might just boil over in ways nobody expects. For now, Venezuela’s fate hangs in the balance, and the only certainty is that history’s got a knack for serving up the same old dish with a new garnish. Bon appétit, geopolitics.
Milestones in the History of U.S. Foreign Relations - Office of the Historian https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/allende
The Impact of the New US Oil Tariffs on Venezuela - Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA | CGEP % https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/the-impact-of-the-new-us-oil-tariffs-on-venezuela/
Guatemala invasion | Research Starters | EBSCO Research https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/history/guatemala-invasion
