Highlights from Projections of Education Statistics to 2027

Highlights from Projections of Education Statistics to 2027

HIGHLIGHTS FROM PROJECTIONS OF EDUCATION STATISTICS TO 2027

Projections of Education Statistics to 2027 is the 46th in a series of publications initiated in 1964. This report provides national-level data on enrollment, teachers, high school graduates, and expenditures at the elementary and secondary level, and enrollment and degrees at the postsecondary level for the past 15 years and projections to the year 2027. For each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia, the tables, figures, and text contain data on projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2027. The methodology section describes models and assumptions used to develop the national- and state-level projections.

Figure 1. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by grade level: Fall 2002 through fall 2027

NOTE: PreK = prekindergarten. Enrollment numbers for prekindergarten through 12th grade and prekindergarten through 8th grade include private nursery and prekindergarten enrollment in schools that offer kindergarten or higher grades. Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd-numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2002–03 through 2015–16; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years 2003–04 through 2015–16; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1972 through 2027. (This figure was prepared April 2018.)

Total elementary and secondary enrollment

• increased 3 percent between 2002 and 2015 (54.4 million versus 56.2 million); and
• is projected to increase 4 percent between 2015 and 2027 to 58.2 million.

Enrollment in prekindergarten through grade 8

• was 2 percent higher in 2015 (39.7 million versus 39.0 million) than in 2002; and
• is projected to increase 4 percent between 2015 and 2027 to 41.2 million.

Enrollment in grades 9–12

• increased 7 percent between 2002 and 2015 (15.4 million versus 16.5 million); and
• is projected to increase 3 percent between 2015 and 2027 to 17.0 million.

Figure 3. Projected percentage change in enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by state: Fall 2015 and fall 2027

NOTE: Mean absolute percentage errors of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools by state and region can be found in table A-7, appendix A. Although rounded numbers are displayed, the figures are based on unrounded numbers.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2015–16; and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1980 through 2027. (This figure was prepared April 2018.)

The expected 3 percent national increase in public school enrollment between 2015 and 2027 plays out differently among the states.

• Enrollments are projected to be higher in 2027 than in 2015 for 33 states and the District of Columbia, with projected enrollments
• 5 percent or more higher in 24 states and the District of Columbia; and
• less than 5 percent higher in 9 states.
• Enrollments are projected to be lower in 2027 than in 2015 for 17 states, with projected enrollments
• 5 percent or more lower in 10 states; and
• less than 5 percent lower in 7 states.

Figure 9. Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: School years 2002–03 through 2027–28

NOTE: The private school data for 2014–15 is an actual number. Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd-numbered years and the numbers collected for high school graduates are for the preceding year, private school numbers for odd years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Includes graduates of regular day school programs. Excludes graduates of other programs, when separately reported, and recipients of high school equivalency certificates. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2003–04 through 2009–10; “State Dropout and Completion Data File,” 2010–11 through 2012–13; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years, 2003–04 through 2015–16; and National High School Graduates Projection Model, 1972–73 through 2027–28. (This figure was prepared April 2018.)

The total number of high school graduates

• increased 15 percent between 2002–03 and 2012–13 (3.0 million versus 3.5 million), a period of 10 years; and
• is projected to increase 5 percent between 2012–13 and 2027–28 to 3.7 million.

The number of public high school graduates

• increased 17 percent between 2002–03 and 2012–13 (2.7 million versus 3.2 million); and
• is projected to increase 5 percent between 2012–13 and 2027–28 to 3.3 million.

The number of private high school graduates

• increased 4 percent between 2002–03 and 2012–13 (296,000 versus 309,000); and
• is projected to be not measurably different in 2027–28 (314,000) than in 2012–13.

Figure 16. Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions: Fall 2002 through fall 2027

NOTE: Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) Spring 2003 through Spring 2017, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 2000 through 2027. (This figure was prepared April 2018.)

Total enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions

• increased 19 percent from 2002 to 2016 (16.6 million versus 19.8 million), a period of 14 years; and
• is projected to increase 3 percent, to 20.5 million, from 2016 to 2027, a period of 11 years.

To view the full report, please visit https://nces.ed.gov/ pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2019001

AUTHORS
William J. Hussar
National Center for Education Statistics Tabitha M. Bailey
IHS Global Inc.

This report was prepared in part under Contract No. ED-IES-14-O-5005 with IHS Global Inc. Mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Highlights from Projections of Education Statistics to 2027