Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Gates Still Doesn’t Get It! Trapped in a World of Circular Reasoning & Flawed Frameworks « School Finance 101

Gates Still Doesn’t Get It! Trapped in a World of Circular Reasoning & Flawed Frameworks « School Finance 101:


Gates Still Doesn’t Get It! Trapped in a World of Circular Reasoning & Flawed Frameworks

Not much time for a thorough review of the most recent release of the Gates MET project, but here are my first cut comments on the major problems with the report. The take home argument of the report seems to be that their proposed teacher evaluation models are sufficiently reliable for prime time use and that the preferred model should include about 33 to 50% test score based statistical modeling of teacher effectiveness coupled with at least two observations on every teacher. They come to this conclusion by analyzing data on 3,000 or so teachers across multiple cities.  They arrive at the 33 to 50% figure, coupled with two observations, by playing a tradeoff game. They find – as one might expect – that prior value added of a teacher is still the best predictor of itself a year later… but that when the weight on observations is increased, the year to year correlation for the overall rating increases (well, sort of). They still find relatively low correlations between value-added ratings for teachers on state tests and ratings for the same teachers with the same kids on higher order tests.
So, what’s wrong with all of this? Here’s my quick run-down:
1. Self-validating Circular Reasoning
I’ve written several previous posts explaining the absurdity of the general framework of this research which