WILL THE REAL CALIFORNIA PROGRESSIVE PLEASE STAND UP?
A slightly unhinged, but deeply necessary guide to the 2026 California Governor's race — written by someone who finds the jungle primary deeply personal.
Welcome to California, where the avocado toast is $22, the wildfires are annual, and somehow the most consequential governor's race in a generation has turned into a three-ring circus with a MAGA sideshow threatening to steal the tent. The June 2 primary is coming fast, the May 5 CNN debate is your last big chance to watch these candidates sweat under studio lights, and if California's progressives can't figure out which one of their three perfectly good champions to rally behind — well, don't be surprised when you wake up on November 4 with a Fox News contributor as your governor.
So let's do this. Let's follow the money, read the receipts, and figure out: Will the real California progressive please stand up?
First, the Uncomfortable Truth About the Jungle Primary
California's "Top-Two" Open Primary sounds democratic and enlightened — very California. Every candidate on one ballot, top two vote-getters advance, party be damned. Beautiful in theory.
In practice? It's a progressive nightmare dressed in bipartisan clothing.
Here's the math that should terrify you: Tom Steyer, Katie Porter, and Xavier Becerra are all splitting the same progressive voter pool like three people fighting over one burrito. Meanwhile, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco are the only two Republicans in the serious conversation, meaning the GOP vote consolidates like it's been Marie Kondo'd. If Democratic voters stay fractured and smug about their preferred flavor of progressive, both Republicans could theoretically slip into the November runoff — and suddenly California, California, is choosing between two Trump disciples in the general election.
As your narrator — an ape who finds the concept of a "jungle primary" personally offensive — I can tell you: swinging from a Republican palm tree is not the flex it sounds like. The jungle primary isn't a feature. Right now, it's a trap. Watch the May 5 debate. Then vote like California's soul depends on it. Because it does.
The Progressive Trio: Three Flavors, One Crucial Choice
They all wave the progressive banner. They all say the right things about corporations, climate, and the cost of living. But how they wave that banner — and who paid for it — tells you everything.
Katie Porter — "Your Mom With a Whiteboard and Zero Chill for Corporate America"
Let's be honest: Katie Porter is the candidate your conscience wants you to vote for. She's the Harvard-trained consumer protection attorney who became famous for making bank CEOs visibly sweat on C-SPAN with nothing but a dry-erase marker and the energy of a disappointed professor returning a very bad exam.
Her progressive credentials are structural, not performative:
- Deputy Chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus — she didn't just attend the progressive meeting, she helped run it
- Refuses all corporate PAC and lobbyist money — full stop, no asterisks, no "well technically it's a hybrid PAC" loopholes
- Secured $18 billion for California homeowners; forced free COVID tests; passed legislation curbing corporate misconduct
- Platform includes eliminating income taxes for those earning under $100K, free UC/CSU tuition, and universal free childcare
The money picture: ~$3.7 million cash on hand, almost entirely from small-dollar individual donors. She is, financially speaking, the most grassroots candidate in the race.
The catch: She lost her congressional seat in 2024, which her opponents have weaponized as a "can she win?" narrative. Also, $3.7 million in a race where one guy has spent $147 million is the political equivalent of bringing a whiteboard to a rocket launcher fight.
Vibe: The Professor. The Fighter. The one who actually did the homework.
Tom Steyer — "The Billionaire Who Would Like You to Know He Feels Very Bad About Being a Billionaire"
Tom Steyer is a fascinating political creature: a hedge fund billionaire who has spent the last decade trying to atone for being a hedge fund billionaire, and doing it with the enthusiasm of someone who just discovered composting. His climate activism is genuine, his pivot to progressive politics has been thorough, and his checkbook is absolutely unhinged.
His progressive credentials are endorsed and expensive:
- Formally endorsed by Courage California, the state's largest multi-issue progressive organization
- Backed by Our Revolution (yes, Bernie's people)
- Supports single-payer healthcare, a billionaire tax (on himself, presumably), abolishing ICE, and a pledge to cut electricity costs by 25%
- Founded NextGen America, a major youth-mobilization progressive PAC
- Has spent over $147 million on this race — roughly $105 million of his own money since January alone
The money picture: Self-funded to a degree that makes other candidates look like they're running a bake sale. The irony of a "billionaire tax" advocate spending $147 million to win an election is not lost on anyone, including Tom Steyer, who has apparently made peace with it.
The catch: When your entire pitch is "I can't be bought because I'm already rich," you're one opposition research cycle away from someone pointing out your hedge fund's fossil fuel investments. Critics on the left find the self-funded billionaire-as-populist-hero narrative a little... rich. Literally.
Vibe: The Change Agent. The Climate Crusader. The guy who will absolutely outspend you into submission and then give a very passionate speech about wealth inequality.
Xavier Becerra — "The Man in the Middle, Holding the Institutional Guardrails"
Xavier Becerra is the candidate who has actually run things — and he will remind you of this approximately every 90 seconds. Former California AG (sued the Trump administration 122 times — yes, someone counted), former HHS Secretary, helped write the Affordable Care Act, 30-year government veteran. His resume is a progressive highlight reel. His campaign energy is... a well-organized filing cabinet.
His progressive credentials are real but institutional:
- Defended the ACA, expanded healthcare access, protected immigrant communities as AG
- Supports single-payer healthcare at the state level
- Endorsed by over a dozen state legislators and Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas
- Surged in polls after Eric Swalwell's exit, consolidating establishment support
The money picture: Raised approximately $1 million — the most modest war chest of the three — from traditional Democratic establishment donors and healthcare-related contributors.
The catch: Progressive groups have pushed back hard. Politico reported a genuine progressive backlash against Becerra, with critics citing perceived failures in his HHS leadership and a lack of bold policy specifics. His debate retort to Porter — "That's very rich to hear from someone who's never had to actually run a government" — was technically accurate and politically tone-deaf simultaneously, which is a very specific skill.
Vibe: The Executive. The Institutional Progressive. The candidate who knows where all the levers are and will pull them responsibly, if not dramatically.
📊 The Progressive Scorecard
| Feature | Katie Porter | Tom Steyer | Xavier Becerra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primary Focus | Corporate Accountability | Climate & Wealth Inequality | Healthcare & Governance |
| Corporate PAC $ | Refuses all ❌ | Self-funded (billionaire) 💰 | Accepts ✅ |
| Key Endorsement | Progressive labor/activists | Courage California, Our Revolution | Traditional Democratic base |
| Money Raised | ~$3.7M (grassroots) | ~$147M (his own) | ~$1M (establishment) |
| Progressive Style | Structural / Accountability | Movement / Climate | Institutional / Establishment |
| Vibe | "The Professor" | "The Change Agent" | "The Executive" |
Now, the Red Team: MAGA Comes to the Golden State
Let's talk about the two gentlemen who would like to turn California into a Florida cosplay.
Steve Hilton — former Fox News host, former UK political strategist, current Trump-endorsed "CalDOGE" enthusiast — is running the "efficiency" play. He wants to slash the state budget by 18%, gut environmental regulations, and import Elon Musk's government-demolition aesthetic to Sacramento. He shares exactly one policy with Katie Porter (no income tax under $100K), which is the political equivalent of finding out your nemesis also likes the same obscure band. Sergey Brin of Google is among his donors, because nothing says "drain the swamp" like a Silicon Valley billionaire writing checks.
Chad Bianco — Riverside County Sheriff, self-described "nuclear option" for Sacramento — is running the "law, order, and chaos" play simultaneously. He famously said America should "put a felon in the White House." He seized half a million ballots to investigate alleged election discrepancies. He called criminal justice reform a "sick and twisted love affair with criminals." He wants to use oil revenue to eliminate the state income tax entirely. He is, in short, a man who has fully committed to the bit.
Together, they are polling well enough — precisely because the Democratic vote is fractured — that analysts are genuinely running the math on a two-Republican November runoff. That's not a hypothetical. That's a warning.
💵 Follow the Money: The Full Picture
Before you vote, know who's funding whom. Money in politics isn't everything, but it tells you who expects a return on their investment.
| Candidate | Total Spent/Raised | Primary Money Source | Notable Backers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Steyer | ~$147M spent | Self-funded | His own hedge fund wealth |
| Matt Mahan | ~$38M total | Big Tech PACs | DoorDash, Ripple, Stripe CEOs |
| Steve Hilton | ~$4.4M | Tech/Conservative donors | Sergey Brin (Google), Joe Lonsdale (Palantir) |
| Katie Porter | ~$3.7M cash on hand | Small-dollar grassroots | Individual donors — no corporate PACs |
| Xavier Becerra | ~$1M | Democratic establishment | Traditional donors, healthcare sector |
| Chad Bianco | ~$1.5M | Law enforcement PACs | MAGA-aligned donors, Inland Empire conservatives |
And lurking behind all of this? Dark money. Anti-Steyer groups funded by PG&E and the California Chamber of Commerce have already spent $21 million in attack ads. Silicon Valley billionaires have poured $45 million into committees fighting the proposed Billionaire Tax ballot measure. The real money fight in California isn't between the candidates — it's between the billionaires who want to keep their billions and the candidate who wants to tax his.
The Bottom Line: Don't Let Perfect Be the Enemy of Electable
Here's the uncomfortable synthesis that no progressive wants to hear but every progressive needs to:
Katie Porter is the most authentically, structurally progressive candidate in the race — clean money, proven record, zero corporate entanglements, and a genuine legislative legacy of holding power accountable. If progressivism means independence from corporate influence and a demonstrated willingness to fight, she's your candidate.
Tom Steyer has the boldest current platform, the most powerful progressive endorsements, and the biggest megaphone money can buy. If progressivism means climate urgency, wealth redistribution, and movement energy — and you can make peace with the billionaire paradox — he's your candidate.
Xavier Becerra is the safest pair of hands, the most experienced executive, and the candidate least likely to scare off moderate Democrats. If progressivism means protecting what we've built and governing with institutional competence, he's your candidate.
All three are infinitely preferable to a California governed by a Fox News host running "CalDOGE" or a sheriff who thinks seizing ballots is a normal Tuesday.
The May 5 CNN debate is tomorrow. Watch it. Not to be entertained — though Steyer's ads and Porter's whiteboard energy will deliver — but to make a decision. Then vote in the June 2 primary like the jungle primary is the threat it actually is.
Because the real California progressive isn't the one with the best platform, the most money, or the most passionate Twitter following.
The real California progressive is the one who actually wins.
Now put down the avocado toast, pick up your mail-in ballot (arriving tomorrow, May 4), and let's not hand the Golden State to someone whose governing philosophy is "what would Trump do, but with better weather."