On the 2016 Presidential Election Polls
Reviewing presidential election polls is like watching politically loaded horse races in slow motion.
According to RealClearPolitics, based on various polls conducted at the end of December 2015, it looks like for the most part, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are the two most likely to receive the Republican nomination for president. Marco Rubio and Ben Carson are moderately and respectably holding their own (note that CNN considers Trump, Cruz, and Rubio in “dead heat”), but at this point, Jeb! Bush’s ratings are just an embarrassment. Still, Bush is reorganizing his campaign for a third time in (far-fetched?) hopes to nab the Republican endorsement and votes enough to live in the same Pennsylvania Avenue house as his father and brother once did.
There are some with the likelihood of a 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue home address stacked against them, and Jeb! is certainly among that group.
With the Republicans, Trump is out front; however, he is a rich guy who can buy himself a run as an independent (which he apparently has threatened to do) if he does not receive the Republican nomination (something the Republican National Party doesn’t seem keen on anyway) and which likely worries the Republicans as it could force a three-way presidential race that could be the Republican-in-the-House undoing in Election 2016.
On the Democratic side, Clinton is overshadowing Bernie Sanders by a notable margin (e.g., +23 in Nevada on Dec. 30, 2015). Clinton is corporate Democrat material, the kind favored by the Democratic National Party, so it seems at this point she will get the Democratic nod for nomination.
Sanders has said that he would not run as an independent if he does not receive the On the 2016 Presidential Election Polls | deutsch29: