How Can Cities' NAEP Report Cards Be OK When Students Are Doing Worse?
Gentrification in U.S. cities masks big declines in math.
Here's a riddle. In New York City, the largest school district in the nation, eighth-grade math scores were virtually unchanged between 2013 and 2015, according to national test results released Oct. 28, 2015. That's not great news, but at least they didn't decline along with those of the rest of the nation's eighth graders. (See our story about the 2015 National Assessment of Educational Progress, or NAEP.)
But a closer inspection of New York City's scores showed something peculiar. Scores of white students fell a whopping 7 points, with the average white student now scoring below "proficient" instead of above. Scores of black students declined 2 points. And Asian test scores declined by a point as well.
So, three of the city's four major demographic groups, which make up more that 60 percent of the city's public school children, did worse. But overall the city's average math score was unchanged. How can this be?
It's partly explained by the 4-point rise in the eighth-grade math scores of Hispanics, who make up 37 percent of the population. But the bigger answer is that U.S. cities are fluid and their populations can change fast. In 2013, New York City's eighth graders were 11 percent white, 31 percent black, 42 percent Hispanic and 16 percent Asian. Two years later, in 2015, the city's gentrification had changed the complexion of middle school classrooms. The city's eighth grade was suddenly 15 percent white, 30 percent black, 37 percent Hispanic and 17 percent Asian.
The two demographic groups that, on average, score low – blacks and Hispanics – had shrunk (down 6 percentage points). The two demographic groups that score high – whites and Asians – had grown (up 5 percentage points). Even with the sharp decline in white scores, white students, on average, were still scoring much higher, about 30 points higher, than their black and Latino peers. And so when there are more whites and Asians in the public school system, that's going to prop up the school district's overall scores.
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