Slower population growth means teacher shortage likely averted
By Tom Chorneau
Monday, February 04, 2013
New population estimates released last week by the governor’s Department of Finance may give relief to planners worried about a potential teacher shortage, as a modest increase in school age children by 2020 was set to collide with mass retirements of educators in the coming decade.
Although challenges remain for ensuring California classrooms will have highly qualified teachers in the future, the revised population estimates show California’s preschool and school-age population staying almost flat through the next decade – a big difference from the 7 percent growth previously predicted.
Demographers in the finance department say the overall population growth for California through 2060 appears to be far less robust than projections made in 2007 – the last time the agency undertook the a long-term analysis.
“There was a bit of a boom period leading up to the release of those projections in 2007 and there was probably a little bit too much weight given to the recent past, in my opinion – so these new projections are lower in general,” said Bill