Thought on the Virginia governor's race
originally posted on kindler's diary yesterday as a comment. Several people requested that I post it as its own diary, so here it is, in slightly modified form.
Let me speak as a Virginian since 1982
which also makes me a carpetbagger, and as someone who knows the author of this diary, and all of the major dems mentioned in the piece by kindler and in the comments on that thread.
1. Jim Webb - is NOT going to run for governor. He had his reasons not to run again for Senate. His background and mien were a far better fit as a Senator than as a governor who has to negotiate with a legislature like our General Assembly.
2. Tom Perriello is a good friend. I think it would be a real mistake for him to run against McAuliffe in a primary. As much as I like Tom, I think he would lose and in the process might destroy Terry's chance of winning the general. Why do I think he would lose? Quite frankly, Terry would have pretty much of a lock on the Arrican-American vote. If you go back to the 2009 gubernatorial primary the only Congressional District Creigh Deeds did NOT win in the 3-way context was the 3rd, Bobby Scott's. Tom would also be challenged severely on his vote for the Stupak Amendment - I have heard this multiple times in exchanges with a number of feminists who point out that Terry, who is also Catholic, has never been anything but openly pro-choice. Although Tom has spent some time helping Dems around the state, he has not come close to what Terry has been doing for four years. Tom MIGHT be able to raise a decent amount of money for a primary race, but Terry could if necessary raise an awesome amount of money. And Terry has the one trump card of his close friendship with Bill Clinton, which matters hugely in the African-American community, but also among some more conservative Dems and Independents.
3. Terry McAuliffe - I agree with Kindler that he has an almost boyish ability and enthusiasm that can be contagious. It can at times also be over the top, but he has spent so much time around the state that he has learned how to temper it. Last time he had Mike Henry and Mo Ellethei helping his campaign. I suspect that Mike Henry will not this time - he had left politics but came back in for Tim Kaine's Senate race. But I know he would really like to get back to his other pursuits. Mo is still in politics. Terry will also have Levar Stoney, who used to run the Virginia Democratic party, helping run his campaign.
(keep reading below the squiggle)
Let me speak as a Virginian since 1982
which also makes me a carpetbagger, and as someone who knows the author of this diary, and all of the major dems mentioned in the piece by kindler and in the comments on that thread.
1. Jim Webb - is NOT going to run for governor. He had his reasons not to run again for Senate. His background and mien were a far better fit as a Senator than as a governor who has to negotiate with a legislature like our General Assembly.
2. Tom Perriello is a good friend. I think it would be a real mistake for him to run against McAuliffe in a primary. As much as I like Tom, I think he would lose and in the process might destroy Terry's chance of winning the general. Why do I think he would lose? Quite frankly, Terry would have pretty much of a lock on the Arrican-American vote. If you go back to the 2009 gubernatorial primary the only Congressional District Creigh Deeds did NOT win in the 3-way context was the 3rd, Bobby Scott's. Tom would also be challenged severely on his vote for the Stupak Amendment - I have heard this multiple times in exchanges with a number of feminists who point out that Terry, who is also Catholic, has never been anything but openly pro-choice. Although Tom has spent some time helping Dems around the state, he has not come close to what Terry has been doing for four years. Tom MIGHT be able to raise a decent amount of money for a primary race, but Terry could if necessary raise an awesome amount of money. And Terry has the one trump card of his close friendship with Bill Clinton, which matters hugely in the African-American community, but also among some more conservative Dems and Independents.
3. Terry McAuliffe - I agree with Kindler that he has an almost boyish ability and enthusiasm that can be contagious. It can at times also be over the top, but he has spent so much time around the state that he has learned how to temper it. Last time he had Mike Henry and Mo Ellethei helping his campaign. I suspect that Mike Henry will not this time - he had left politics but came back in for Tim Kaine's Senate race. But I know he would really like to get back to his other pursuits. Mo is still in politics. Terry will also have Levar Stoney, who used to run the Virginia Democratic party, helping run his campaign.
(keep reading below the squiggle)