My predictions - by how much Obama wins, and more - if anyone cares
Above the fold I will offer what are, for now my predictions.
EV 347- 191. The states Obama won last time now have 359 EVs. Subtract IN and 2nd CD of NE takes you to 347. Obama holds all other states, NC and FL and CO narrowly. He narrowly loses AZ.
Popular Vote currently thinking 51-47-2. I note Romney has ceiling in most battlegrounds of 47 or 46. I presume 2% to minor parties. If that goes down, it could be only a 3 point margin, but I expect Obama to be >50%, thus being 1st(wrong) 2nd President since Eisenhower (also Reagan) to reach a majority of popular vote twice.
Senate 56-42-2 (independents Sanders & King, both voting with Dems) - in other words, we hold ALL of our seats, even NE (late movement towards Kerry) and pick off ME, IN, NV, MA & AZ. I am least confident on Tester holding his seat, but think the presence of a Libertarian Senate candidate may be enough to enable him to hang on.
House - we net 16 - we win 23 current Republican seats but lose 7 current Dem seats - Good news, we defeat at least 3 (and maybe all 4) of Walsh, King, Bachmann and West.
Go below the cheese doodle for some explanation of my rationale.
EV 347- 191. The states Obama won last time now have 359 EVs. Subtract IN and 2nd CD of NE takes you to 347. Obama holds all other states, NC and FL and CO narrowly. He narrowly loses AZ.
Popular Vote currently thinking 51-47-2. I note Romney has ceiling in most battlegrounds of 47 or 46. I presume 2% to minor parties. If that goes down, it could be only a 3 point margin, but I expect Obama to be >50%, thus being 1st(wrong) 2nd President since Eisenhower (also Reagan) to reach a majority of popular vote twice.
Senate 56-42-2 (independents Sanders & King, both voting with Dems) - in other words, we hold ALL of our seats, even NE (late movement towards Kerry) and pick off ME, IN, NV, MA & AZ. I am least confident on Tester holding his seat, but think the presence of a Libertarian Senate candidate may be enough to enable him to hang on.
House - we net 16 - we win 23 current Republican seats but lose 7 current Dem seats - Good news, we defeat at least 3 (and maybe all 4) of Walsh, King, Bachmann and West.
Go below the cheese doodle for some explanation of my rationale.