If you want to explore impact of Latino vote
on a state by state basis, you might find this map from Latino Decisions somewhat useful.
You can click on the state to get details.
The data for predicting the top line outcome of the state may be somewhat dated, since the map was last updated on October 28, and things have been moving in the direction of Obama ever since.
What is key is the expected percentage of the vote Latino Decisions believes will be Latino - usually at least a few points over that shown in most public polls - and how they expect the Latino vote to split.
Thus, in the new NBC/Marist/WSJ poll of Florida, we find the poll expects the electorate in FL to be 14% Latino, whereas Latino Decisions expects the share to be 17.4%. Further, Latino Decision says only 31% of those voters will break Republican.
Thus if you add 17.4%, and take a rough 2-1 break in favor of Democrats, the additional 3.4% would add
You can click on the state to get details.
The data for predicting the top line outcome of the state may be somewhat dated, since the map was last updated on October 28, and things have been moving in the direction of Obama ever since.
What is key is the expected percentage of the vote Latino Decisions believes will be Latino - usually at least a few points over that shown in most public polls - and how they expect the Latino vote to split.
Thus, in the new NBC/Marist/WSJ poll of Florida, we find the poll expects the electorate in FL to be 14% Latino, whereas Latino Decisions expects the share to be 17.4%. Further, Latino Decision says only 31% of those voters will break Republican.
Thus if you add 17.4%, and take a rough 2-1 break in favor of Democrats, the additional 3.4% would add
Charles M. Blow asks "Is Romney Unraveling?"
In his New York Times column he counts four ways in which Romney is losing it:
1) The economy continues to improve. - This undercuts Romney's argument that his business experience is necessary to turn things around. Consider - unemployment below 8% (171,000 net jobs last month), housing starts up 15% for largets increase in 4 years
As Blow writes:
1) The economy continues to improve. - This undercuts Romney's argument that his business experience is necessary to turn things around. Consider - unemployment below 8% (171,000 net jobs last month), housing starts up 15% for largets increase in 4 years
As Blow writes:
Romney needed gloom and doom on the economy, but Obama got some rays of sunlight.2) Romney’s momentum is maxing out. Blow notes that Romney did jump after the 1st debate, but then stalled.
Momentum begot momentum. But it peaked a couple of weeks ago, and evidence amassed that
NBC/Marist/WSJ FL: O49 R47 - UPDATED
poll topline is of likely voters. If of registered voters margin is 49-46
Bill Nelson leads among likely voters 52-43
details of the poll available here
several details offered for your consideration
63% already voted or planning to vote early (through today), breaking for Obama 53-46, while Romney wins
Bill Nelson leads among likely voters 52-43
details of the poll available here
several details offered for your consideration
63% already voted or planning to vote early (through today), breaking for Obama 53-46, while Romney wins
Washington Post: The Post’s View Mitt Romney’s campaign insults voters
In this editorial, which went up in the Noon hour this afternoon, the editorial board lambastes the Republican nominee. It begins simply, and bluntly:
THROUGH ALL THE flip-flops, there has been one consistency in the campaign of Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney: a contempt for the electorate.The editorial board goes on to provide substantial substance to support that assertion:
My predictions - by how much Obama wins, and more - if anyone cares
Above the fold I will offer what are, for now my predictions.
EV 347- 191. The states Obama won last time now have 359 EVs. Subtract IN and 2nd CD of NE takes you to 347. Obama holds all other states, NC and FL and CO narrowly. He narrowly loses AZ.
Popular Vote currently thinking 51-47-2. I note Romney has ceiling in most battlegrounds of 47 or 46. I presume 2% to minor parties. If that goes down, it could be only a 3 point margin, but I expect Obama to be
EV 347- 191. The states Obama won last time now have 359 EVs. Subtract IN and 2nd CD of NE takes you to 347. Obama holds all other states, NC and FL and CO narrowly. He narrowly loses AZ.
Popular Vote currently thinking 51-47-2. I note Romney has ceiling in most battlegrounds of 47 or 46. I presume 2% to minor parties. If that goes down, it could be only a 3 point margin, but I expect Obama to be
Read Paul Krugman's column - NOW
It is called The Blackmail Caucus.
He begins by laying out the stark policy differences between the two candidates:
He begins by laying out the stark policy differences between the two candidates:
If President Obama is re-elected, health care coverage will expand dramatically, taxes on the wealthy will go up and Wall Street will face tougher regulation. If Mitt Romney wins instead, health coverage will shrink substantially, taxes on the wealthy will fall to levels not seen in 80 years and financial regulation will be rolled back.He suggests is it fine to decide between the two based on the policies they would follow. He then attacks the
"Cynical" - new Obama TV Ad
Popout
so do you like it?
would love to know where it is playing - OH & MI to be sure, but where esle?
so do you like it?
would love to know where it is playing - OH & MI to be sure, but where esle?