Let me say from the outset, that despite my headline, Secretary of Education Arne Duncan has made it very clear, repeatedly, that he doesn't think politics are going to play any kind of role in deciding which states snag one of the highly coveted Race to the Top grants. He's lining up "disinterested superstars" and has a very detailed rubric determining how grants will be doled out, probably in part to avoid those sorts of accusations.
However, it's interesting to speculate on who would have an edge if Race to the Top were purely, or even partly, political. And, despite the department's best efforts, if certain states get grants, I'm sure some folks out there will wonder whether politics had any sort of role in that decision.
There's been speculation that purple states, particularly those with endangered Democrat incumbents like Ohio (Gov. Ted Strickland) and Colorado (Sen. Michael Bennet) might have an edge. And that's a great point.